UTSA Center for Public Opinion Research releases results of final survey ahead of Election Day

OCTOBER 24, 2024 — A new survey of San Antonio voters by the UTSA Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR) shows a shift in sentiment for Proposition C, the San Antonio city charter amendment that would remove caps on the city manager’s salary and the number of years a person could serve in that position.

At the same time, the survey reveals that 72% of voters remain unfamiliar with all six of the charter amendments that they are being asked to consider. Still, that is a nearly 10-point change from a CPOR survey conducted in September, when 81% of respondents said they were unaware of the charter amendments referendum.

In the survey of voter opinions, conducted October 15-20, 43% expressed support for Proposition C, 27% were opposed and 30% were unsure. If adopted, Proposition C would amend the city charter to give city council “the authority to set the full terms of the city manager’s employment including tenure and compensation.”

By comparison, in a September survey conducted by CPOR, Proposition C had the least support of voters. Last month, 53% said they did not support it and 33% said they were in favor of the measure when asked if the charter should be amended to “remove the caps on the salary of the city manager and the number of years a person could serve in the position as city manager.”

The October survey used the ballot’s exact language while the September survey used brief descriptions of the propositions.

“It’s clear that, for a few of the propositions, there is a disconnect between voters’ understanding of the ballot language and their support for the effects the propositions would have,” said Bryan Gervais, UTSA associate professor of political science and CPOR director. “Public polling like that conducted by the center provides insight into what the public understands, what it doesn’t understand, and what that means for good governance and accountability. The results highlight why public polling is essential.”

The most recent CPOR poll queried 656 San Antonio likely voters to gain their thoughts and opinions about San Antonio’s charter amendments and the candidates running in the city’s 2025 mayoral race. The survey also measured support in high-profile federal races. This poll was administered in English and Spanish and has a margin of error of +/- 3.8%.

Key Highlights

• More than 72% of likely San Antonio voters remain unfamiliar with the charter amendments that are on the November ballot. However, when presented with actual ballot language, Propositions A, D and E were at or above 50% in voter support. Proposition A would define “conflicts of interest” in San Antonio’s charter, sufficiently fund the Ethics Review Board and enable the board to hear complaints that have been resolved by an entity other than the Ethics Review Board. Proposition D would allow city employees to participate in political activities without fear of retribution.

• Proposition E, which would amend the city charter to “set and limit the compensation for city council members and the mayor to $70,200 and $87,800,” with annual adjustments tied to area median income, attracted majority support. Among likely voters, 52% said they would vote in favor and only 20% said they would vote against the measure. About 29% said they were not sure how they would vote. This is a significant difference from the September CPOR poll, when 51% of respondents said they would not support an amendment that would “raise the salaries” of the city council and mayor.

• As with Proposition E, support for Proposition C looks much different when the actual ballot language is used. The September CPOR poll asked voters if they would support an amendment that would remove the cap on the salary of the city manager and the number of years a person could serve in that position. Only about 17% of voters said they supported such a change. When Proposition C’s actual ballot language is used, “Shall the Charter of the City of San Antonio be amended to grant to City Council the authority to set the full terms of the City Manager’s employment including tenure and compensation?”, there is significantly more support: 43% said they would vote in favor of the proposition, with 27% opposed and 30% unsure.

• The amendment with the least amount of support is Proposition B. If approved, it would revise or eliminate provisions of the city charter that are outdated, contain archaic language, or have been superseded by state law. Slightly more than 37% support the measure while only 8% oppose it. But nearly 55% were unsure of whether they would vote to approve it.
  
  
• As in the September poll, few San Antonio voters have a clear opinion of who they intend to support for mayor in next year’s city election. Forty percent stated they were not familiar with any of the candidates, and another 31% indicated they did not know who they would support. Although in single digits, Councilman John Courage retains the highest level of support at 6%, down from 9% in the September survey.
  
  
• The October survey results show that support for Vice President Kamala Harris among San Antonio voters has narrowed since the September survey but remains ahead of former President Donald Trump. Harris leads 49% to Trump’s 36%. In September, Harris’ support stood at 53% while Trump’s standing was 35%.
  
  
• In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Colin Allred’s support increased slightly to 48% compared to 44% in September. He continues to lead incumbent Ted Cruz, whose support among San Antonio voters is 30% in October, compared to 28% in September. Nearly one in five Bexar County voters remain undecided about this race.

Established in Fall 2023, CPOR is a nationally accredited, academic public opinion research center that produces and facilitates basic and applied opinion research to broaden the shared understanding of important political and governance issues. The center is certified by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR)’s Transparency Initiative. AAPOR is an organization comprised of public opinion and survey research professionals in the U.S., with members from academia, media, government, the non-profit sector and private industry. As a member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, CPOR practices transparency in reporting its survey-based research findings.

Survey Methodology

The UTSA Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR) uses stratified sampling for its election polls. Registered voters are divided into three categories: those who voted in the last general election (November 2022), those who skipped the last general election, and those who registered to vote after the last general election. Random samples of voters are then selected from each category in proportion to the share of the electorate each category is expected to make up in the November 2024 election, based on analyses of previous elections. Those selected are invited via email to complete the survey online. The sample is then weighed after the survey has been conducted. CPOR excludes voters from election-related questions who self-report they are unlikely to vote in the election.

— Michelle Gaitan